The 2046 Valentine's Day asteroid that could hit Earth might not hit after all.
NASA recently announced that the asteroid 2023 DW would almost certainly miss Earth on Feb. 14, 2046, avoiding a possible world crisis entirely.
The asteroid is estimated to be as big as a 50-meter Olympic swimming pool - big enough to give the world a calamity to remember, but not an apocalyptic one, should it hit Earth, per NASA.
2023 DW Impact Odds Details
We've been tracking a new asteroid named 2023 DW that has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2046. Often when new objects are first discovered, it takes several weeks of data to reduce the uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits years into the future. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/SaLC0AUSdP
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) March 7, 2023
NASA mentioned in its latest announcement that the 2023 DW now has a 99.87% chance of missing Earth entirely come 2046 - a huge difference compared to the space agency's earlier estimate of a 1-in-560 chance of hitting Earth, per Space.com and the BBC.
Even the European Space Agency revised the odds of 2023 DW impacting Earth from 1-in-625 to around 1-in-1,584 - a huge change of chances.
These changes in 2023 DW's odds of hitting Earth and causing damage to our home planet aren't to assure people that 2046's Valentine's Day won't end with a taste test of what the dinosaurs experienced. According to the official NASA Asteroid Watch, it takes several weeks of data to reduce the uncertainties of a newly discovered celestial object's orbit to adequately predict its path years into the future, per CNN.
As a result of this reduction of uncertainty, NASA scientists were able to lower the chances of 2023 DW impacting Earth in 2046. Richard Moissl, the ESA's head of its planetary defense office, stated much the same to the AFP.
Moissl said that the probability for 2023 DW to hit Earth would go down with every observation until it reaches zero in two days at the latest and that no one needs to worry about the asteroid hitting Earth.
Lindley Johnson, Moissl's counterpart in NASA, also mentioned that while NASA tends to be a bit more conservative, it definitely appears that the chances of 2023 DW to ht Earth now have a downward trend.
To reinforce that idea, NASA rates the risk of 2023 DW hitting Earth at a 1 on the Torino Impact Hazard scale. On this scale, a zero rating means that the celestial body in question will never hit Earth, while a 10 means a collision capable of causing global climactic catastrophe is certain, per NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Thanks to the reduction of uncertainties, 2023 DW is at 1 on the scale, meaning that it poses no unusual level of danger and that it is highly unlikely to impact Earth in the future.
What Happens If It Does Hit?
Should 2023 DW be on the warpath towards Earth, the world's space agencies could use NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test spacecraft to redirect the asteroid to at least nearly miss Earth, per DW. The chances to redirect the asteroid are good since humanity has 23 years before it hits Earth - enough time to prepare and send DART spacecraft to redirect 2023 DW.
However, should NASA be unable to do so, Moissl predicts that 2023 DW could cause a "regionalized destruction" and not have a major effect on the rest of the world, similar to the Tunguska event in 1908.
The asteroid would be traveling at nine miles per second and has a 70% chance to land in the Pacific Ocean, though it could potentially hit the west coast of the US, Australia, or Southeast Asia.
