According to market research firm IDC, Android will reach 61 percent of the worldwide smartphone market this year, but will stop growing after that. IDC numbers predict that Android's share of the smartphone market will drop to 52.9 percent by 2016, ceding ground to Microsoft's Windows Phone platform.
IDC believes Microsoft's Windows Phone will surge from its current 5.2 percent share of the smartphone market to 19.2 percent by 2016, thanks to Nokia's strong position in certain emerging markets. Microsoft's big push with its Windows 8 OS and the launch of Windows Phone 8 "Apollo" later this year will help boost adoption of Microsoft's mobile platform.
When it comes to Apple, IDC predicts the iOS platform will dip from its current 20.5 percent market share to about 19 percent of the world market by 2016, landing behind Microsoft's Windows Phone. Meanwhile, Research in Motion's (RIM) market share will remain essentially flat over the next years through 2016, dropping from its current 6 percent to 5.9 percent.
OS Landscape
"Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape," explained Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team. "Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/ Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems - as well as others - will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements."
Global Market
The global mobile market in general will grow by only 4 percent this year, in light of declining sales of feature phones and the sluggish economy. According to IDC, the uncertain economic outlook has prompted people to hold on to their feature phones for a longer time, but feature phones will still make up 61.6 percent of all cell phones shipped this year.
Smartphones
Meanwhile, smartphones will see high year-over-year growth with roughly 686 million units shipped this year, partly due to higher carrier subsidies and lower average selling prices. "The smartphone parade won't be as lively this year as it has been in the past," said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion. Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7."
