Resident groundhog Punxsutawney Phil predicts that spring will come early at today's Groundhog Day celebration in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Traditionally, each year on Feb. 2, Phil the groundhog emerges from his home in Gobbler's Knob, and predicts if an early spring will arrive or if winter will remain for a few more weeks. During the course of the Ground Day ceremony, the groundhog makes his prediction, overseen by the "Inner Circle", a select group of men dressed in tuxedos and top hats.
The tradition of Groundhog Day first began on Feb. 2, 1886 in Pennsylvania with an official celebration. The groundhog was named "Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators". Named after his hometown of Punxsutawney Pennsylvania, which in 1887 was declared weather capital of the world, the town was first settled by the Delaware Indians in 1723. The Indians named the place "ponksad-uteney", meaning the "town of the sandflies."
Today, we call him "Punxsutawney Phil" for short and still consider him to be somewhat of a weather prophet. According to traditional folklore, if groundhog Phil sees his shadow, there is likely to be six more weeks of winter. If Phil fails to see his shadow, an early spring can be expected.
According to folklore, it's said that Groundhog Day originated in medieval Europe and was what Christians originally called Candlemas Day, a candle lighting festival. In England, there was a saying, "If Candlemas be fair and bright, Come, Winter, have another flight. If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Go Winter, and come not again." In Scotland, there was the saying "If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, There'll be two winters in the year." It was believed an animal would cast a shadow on Candlemas Day, if the sun appeared, predicting six more weeks of winter.
It's also said that Europeans may have had a similar legend of springtime being predicted by hedgehogs on Candlemas Day. As the European settlers arrived in North America, because there were no hedgehogs, groundhogs were used as predictors in substitute. Early springs were welcomed, as settlers would begin planting and speed up the time to harvest season.
The United States and Canada observes Groundhog Day and supporters will tell you that the predictions are within the 75% to 90% range when it comes down to accuracy. However, in Canada, studies done over the course about 40 years indicate that the accuracy of the groundhog theory is only about 37%. Records kept since 1887 in the StormFax Weather Almanac show that Punxsutawney Phil's weather predictions are accurate 39% of the time.
Against tradition, meteorologists state that the groundhog's "predictions" are nothing more that inaccurate. As stated by the National Climatic Data Center, "The groundhog has shown no talent for predicting the arrival of spring, especially in recent years".
