One of the most active volcanoes in the world, Japan's Sakurajima, is due for a major eruption in the next 25 years or so, scientists have found.
Located in southern Kyushu, the volcano has last erupted in 1914, killing 58 people in the nearby city of Kagoshima. Today, the coastal city is home to more than 600,000 people.
A team of researchers developed new techniques in mapping the natural plumbing system of the volcano. This method aims to assess magma build up underneath the volcano, signaling another big eruption in the near future.
"What we have discovered is not just how the magma flows into the reservoir, but just how great the reservoir is becoming," said lead investigator, Dr. James Hickey from the Camborne School of Mines at the University of Exeter. He authored the study while he was at the University of Bristol along with scientists from the Sakurajima Volcano Research Centre in Japan.
The researchers found that the 1914 eruption has a magma volume of about 1.5 km cubed in volume. They estimate that it will take about 130 years for the volcano to store the same amount for another huge eruption. This means that it may take only about 25 years from now.
Apparently, the rate at which the volcano releases magma during small eruptions can't compensate the rate at which magma accumulates. In fact, about 14 million cubic meters of magma accumulate every year.
"A thorough understanding of the rate and volume of magma supply and accumulation, and their thermomechanical controls is essential for continued monitoring and eruption forecasting at Sakurajima volcano, and volcanoes worldwide," Dr. Joachim Gottsmann, co-investigator from the University of Bristol said.
Japan's Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), the European Commission VUELCO project and the University of Bristol International Strategic Fund helped fund this project. The study could help scientists predict estimated times at which volcanoes may erupt through the use of new and pioneering methods.
The study was published in the journal Scientific Reports.
