If the hurricane predictions for 2013 are to be believed, then we're in for some rough weather. Top forecasters are of the opinion that 2013 will be an above-average season, with nearly 18 tropical storms, nine of which are believed to be hurricanes.
"For the entire U.S. coastline, there is a 72% chance of a major hurricane making landfall in 2013. Specifically, for the East Coast, including all of Florida, the chance of a major hurricane strike is 48%, while the chance along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, is 47%," says USA Today.
According to forecasters at Colorado State University, the 2013 Atlantic season (extending from June 1 to Nov. 30) will be "above average." Moreover, meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray at the university's Tropical Meteorology Project estimate nine hurricanes.
Klotzbach estimates that of the nine hurricanes predicted, four have the likelihood of becoming major hurricanes to hit the Atlantic basin. The categories of hurricanes have been rated as 3, 4 or 5, which can produce winds that are greater than 111mph.
"The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Nino event this summer and fall are unlikely," notes Klotzbach. "Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation."
Judging by the past, the seasonal forecasts are often conservative. The team, in recent years, has under-forecast the number of tropical storms and hurricanes seven times.
In 2010, 15 storms were predicted and 19 formed, whereas in 2011 the team forecast 16 storms and 19 formed.
According to USA Today, the "first named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season" will be Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian and Erin.
