If you've been paying attention to the recent news about Microsoft's Surface Pro, RT and Windows 8 operating system, chances are you already know what everyone's saying. Nobody likes Windows 8. The Surface Pro is too expensive and the RT model is too limiting.
Late last week, research firms like IDC and Gartner added more fuel to the fire by reporting that PC sales for the first quarter of 2013 are down 14 percent and 11 percent. Regardless of which number is more accurate, a more than 10 percent decline is awful, and they pinned most of the blame on Windows 8.
IDC analyst Bob O'Donnell said Windows 8 has actually hurt sales of PCs, while Motley Fool analyst Andrew Tonner actually explored the question of whether the new OS was Microsoft's biggest failure ever.
Needless to say, Windows 8 coverage has been pretty damning lately. No one has much hope for the Surface Pro and RT, either, much of it due to Windows 8 skepticism, but maybe we shouldn't be so quick to demolish Microsoft's chances in the mobile space just yet.
After all, as Michael Blair points out at Seeking Alpha, the IDC's own tablet numbers predict that the Windows 8 Pro (running on Surface Pro) will grow to 7.4 percent of the tablet market by 2017, while Windows RT (Surface RT) will hit 2.7 percent. Those may seem like small numbers, and they are, but they still represent nearly 50 percent growth for Pro and almost 30 percent growth for RT.
Contrast that with growth for Android and iOS over the next four years, which is expected to be around 15 percent.
To be sure, even at that rate, Microsoft won't be posing a huge threat to Apple and Google, but that doesn't mean the Surface/Windows 8 line-up won't be successful. If the devices add more than $1 billion to Microsoft's profit (not revenue) this year, as Blair suggests, it's hard to say the project should be abandoned.
IDC's numbers also don't quite seem to take into account Microsoft's entry into the smaller tablet space, which many expect to occur this year. New reports suggest a 7- or 8-inch Surface tablet will arrive in time for the holidays. If the price is right, Microsoft could improve its mobile position.
None of this is to say the Surface Pro, RT or Windows 8 are pulling in excellent numbers, but maybe we're jumping to premature conclusions by comparing Surface to Zune, or saying that Windows 8 is Microsoft's biggest failure ever.
